R. Louisville W vs N. Carolina W Prediction & Tips

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USA - NWSL Women Group Stage Lynn Family Stadium· Louisville Saturday, May 23, 2026 20:00

R. Louisville W PPG 2.33

1-2 HIT CS3

N. Carolina W PPG 1.25

Home· +24.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 37.7%

Odds: 3.30 EV: +24.4%

Draw 25.6%

Odds: 3.60 EV: -4.7%

Away 36.6%

Odds: 1.91 EV: -30.1%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.1% Odds: 1.70 +0.5%

Over 3.5 34.0% Odds: 2.75 -6.5%

BTTS 59.7% Odds: 1.60 -4.5%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✔

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

R. Louisville W

1.51

N. Carolina W

1.44

Model SuggestionBTTS -4.5% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-4.5%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=37.7%