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R. Louisville W vs N. Carolina W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 20:00

R. Louisville W

PPG 2.33 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

N. Carolina W

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.6%0-25.4%0-32.6%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.9%1-111.4%1-28.2%1-33.9%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.0%2-18.6%2-26.2%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.0%3-14.3%3-23.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.3%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% 30.3% 3.30 +24.4%

Draw 25.6% 27.8% 3.60 -4.7%

Away win 36.6% 52.4% 1.91 -30.1%

Over 2.5 59.1% 58.8% 1.70 +0.5%

Over 3.5 34.0% 36.4% 2.75 -6.5%

BTTS 59.7% 62.5% 1.60 -4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -7.8%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

H 38% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2✓ 8.2%

#4 0–0 5.3%

#5 1–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

R. Louisville W1.5

N. Carolina W1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 34.0%

Form & verdict PPG

R. LOUISVILLE W · PPG 2.33

N. CAROLINA W · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=37.7%

Win probability 1X2

R. Louisville W (H) 37.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +24.4%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -4.7%

N. Carolina W (A) 36.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -30.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

R. Louisville W face N. Carolina W in USA - NWSL Women on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives R. Louisville W a 38% chance, the draw 26% and N. Carolina W 37%, so R. Louisville W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for R. Louisville W and 1.4 for N. Carolina W (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, R. Louisville W are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.25 for N. Carolina W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.4%. This match finished 1-2.

R. Louisville W vs N. Carolina W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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