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Cajamarca vs Sport Boys Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 16 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 20:00

Cajamarca

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sport Boys

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-19.1%0-24.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.1%1-112.7%1-26.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.1%2-18.9%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.2%3-14.1%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.2% 51.0% 1.96 -5.5%

Draw 27.3% 29.9% 3.35 -5.1%

Away win 24.6% 26.0% 3.85 -3.2%

Over 2.5 47.0% 50.0% 2.00 -6.0%

Over 3.5 21.4% 28.2% 3.55 -14.4%

BTTS 51.6% 56.5% 1.77 -8.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 48% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0✓ 9.4%

#3 1–0 13.1%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cajamarca1.4

Sport Boys1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.0% · O3.5 PROB 21.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CAJAMARCA · PPG 1.29

SPORT BOYS · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.29) vs P(Home)=48.2%

Win probability 1X2

Cajamarca (H) 48.2%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -5.5%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -5.1%

Sport Boys (A) 24.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cajamarca face Sport Boys in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cajamarca a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Sport Boys 25%, so Cajamarca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cajamarca and 1.0 for Sport Boys (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cajamarca are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.43 for Sport Boys. This match finished 0-0.

Cajamarca vs Sport Boys Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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