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Vitoria vs Internacional Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 20:00

Vitoria

PPG 2.29 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Internacional

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-111.6%0-26.0%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.9%1-113.4%1-27.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.4%2-17.7%2-24.0%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.8%3-13.0%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.8% 33.8% 2.96 +14.8%

Draw 30.9% 31.7% 3.15 -2.7%

Away win 30.3% 41.3% 2.42 -26.7%

Over 2.5 46.2% 46.5% 2.15 -0.7%

Over 3.5 17.9% 25.0% 4.00 -17.0%

BTTS 49.9% 54.1% 1.85 -7.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.9%

D 31% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.2%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 0–1 11.6%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vitoria1.2

Internacional1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VITORIA · PPG 2.29

INTERNACIONAL · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs P(Home)=38.8%

Win probability 1X2

Vitoria (H) 38.8%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV +14.8%

Draw 30.9%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -2.7%

Internacional (A) 30.3%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV -26.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vitoria face Internacional in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vitoria a 39% chance, the draw 31% and Internacional 30%, so Vitoria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Vitoria and 1.0 for Internacional (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vitoria are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 1.43 for Internacional. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Vitoria vs Internacional Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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