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Brazil - Serie A
Regular Season - 17
MorumBIS· Sao Paulo
Saturday, May 23, 2026
20:00
Sao Paulo
PPG 2.29
1-1
HIT MostLikelyScore
Botafogo
PPG 1.25
Over3.5· +30.3%
✓ SOLID - Strong home form
80% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
51.7%
Odds: 1.90
EV: -1.8%
Draw
24.0%
Odds: 3.50
EV: -9.6%
Away
24.3%
Odds: 3.85
EV: -3.9%
Model lean:
Over 2.5
Result: Draw ✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
61.4%
Odds: 1.85
+13.6%
Over 3.5
40.1%
Odds: 3.25
+30.3%
BTTS
59.7%
Odds: 1.73
+3.3%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘
BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st
1-1
✔
2nd
2-1
✘
3rd
2-0
✘
4th
1-0
✘
5th
3-1
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Sao Paulo
1.95
Botafogo
1.26
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5
+13.6%
ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market:
Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader:
Over3.5(+30.3%)
League Track Record
↗
Based on 63 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc
49%
O2.5/Under
48%
BTTS/No
54%
Score Hit
49%
ROI
8.0%
Bet Hit
56%
(27 bets)
Verdict & Form
✓ SOLID - Strong home form
80%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs P(Home)=51.7%