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Sao Paulo vs Botafogo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 20:00

Sao Paulo

PPG 2.29 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Botafogo

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 56% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+13.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.1%0-23.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.8%1-19.9%1-26.3%1-32.6%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.7%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.0%3-16.3%3-24.0%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.8%4+-23.0%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% 52.6% 1.90 -1.8%

Draw 24.0% 28.6% 3.50 -9.6%

Away win 24.3% 26.0% 3.85 -3.9%

Over 2.5 61.4% 54.1% 1.85 +13.6%

Over 3.5 40.1% 30.8% 3.25 +30.3%

BTTS 59.7% 57.8% 1.73 +3.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 1–0 7.8%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sao Paulo1.9

Botafogo1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SAO PAULO · PPG 2.29

BOTAFOGO · PPG 1.25

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

56%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs P(Home)=51.7%

Win probability 1X2

Sao Paulo (H) 51.7%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -1.8%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.6%

Botafogo (A) 24.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sao Paulo face Botafogo in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sao Paulo a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Botafogo 24%, so Sao Paulo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Sao Paulo and 1.3 for Botafogo (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sao Paulo are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 1.25 for Botafogo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +30.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Sao Paulo vs Botafogo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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