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A. Rafaela vs Midland Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 19:30

A. Rafaela

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Midland

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-024.5%0-116.5%0-25.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.0%1-112.1%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-06.6%2-14.4%2-21.5%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.6%3-11.1%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.6% 42.9% 2.33 -19.4%

Draw 40.5% 36.4% 2.75 +11.4%

Away win 24.8% 30.3% 3.30 -10.9%

Over 2.5 25.8% 31.3% 3.20 -10.5%

Over 3.5 5.4% 12.5% 8.00 -34.1%

BTTS 42.9% 41.7% 2.40 +3.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob42.9%

D 40% / xG 0.7-0.7 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 24.5%

#2 1–0✓ 18.0%

#3 0–1 16.5%

#4 1–1 12.1%

#5 2–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Rafaela0.7

Midland0.7

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 5.4%

Form & verdict PPG

A. RAFAELA · PPG 2.00

MIDLAND · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

A. Rafaela (H) 34.6%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -19.4%

Draw 40.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +11.4%

Midland (A) 24.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Rafaela face Midland in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Rafaela a 35% chance, the draw 41% and Midland 25%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for A. Rafaela and 0.7 for Midland (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Rafaela are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.33 for Midland. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +11.4%. This match finished 1-0.

A. Rafaela vs Midland Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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