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Novorizontino vs Ceara Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 19:00

Novorizontino

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Ceara

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.5%0-113.7%0-25.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.1%1-113.3%1-25.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.8%2-16.5%2-22.7%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.5%3-12.1%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.0% 46.3% 2.16 -17.9%

Draw 35.1% 33.6% 2.98 +4.6%

Away win 26.9% 27.0% 3.70 -0.3%

Over 2.5 35.0% 40.8% 2.45 -14.2%

Over 3.5 10.9% 21.1% 4.75 -28.9%

BTTS 48.5% 50.0% 2.00 -3.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 38% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.5%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 1–0 16.1%

#4 0–1 13.7%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Novorizontino1.0

Ceara0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NOVORIZONTINO · PPG 1.75

CEARA · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Novorizontino (H) 38.0%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV -17.9%

Draw 35.1%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV +4.6%

Ceara (A) 26.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Novorizontino face Ceara in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Novorizontino a 38% chance, the draw 35% and Ceara 27%, so Novorizontino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Novorizontino and 0.8 for Ceara (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Novorizontino are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.25 for Ceara. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +4.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Novorizontino vs Ceara Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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