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Lewes vs Wingate / F. Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Isthmian

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Lewes

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Wingate / F.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-17.4%0-26.8%0-34.1%0-4+2.9%1 1-05.6%1-110.2%1-29.3%1-35.7%1-4+3.9%2 2-03.8%2-17.0%2-26.4%2-33.9%2-4+2.7%3 3-01.8%3-13.2%3-23.0%3-31.8%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.0% 37.0% 2.70 -21.7%

Draw 22.8% 32.3% 3.10 -29.3%

Away win 48.2% 42.0% 2.38 +14.7%

Over 2.5 62.1% 58.8% 1.70 +5.6%

Over 3.5 39.9% — — —

BTTS 62.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -38.7%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob62.8%

A 48% / xG 1.4-1.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.2%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1 7.4%

#4 2–1 7.0%

#5 0–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lewes1.4

Wingate / F.1.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LEWES · PPG 1.50

WINGATE / F. · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Lewes (H) 29.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -21.7%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -29.3%

Wingate / F. (A) 48.2%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lewes face Wingate / F. in England - Non League Premier - Isthmian on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lewes a 29% chance, the draw 23% and Wingate / F. 48%, so Wingate / F. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Lewes and 1.8 for Wingate / F. (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lewes are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Wingate / F.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Lewes vs Wingate / F. Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Isthmian

Match Preview & Prediction

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