Today / England - Non League Premier - Isthmian / Dulwich Hamlet vs Burgess Hill

Dulwich Hamlet vs Burgess Hill Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Isthmian

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Dulwich Hamlet

PPG 1.55 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Burgess Hill

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+15.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.5%0-23.7%0-32.1%0-4+1.2%1 1-05.3%1-18.8%1-27.3%1-34.0%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.2%2-18.5%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.3%3-15.5%3-24.6%3-32.5%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-14.2%4+-23.5%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 50.0% 2.00 -10.0%

Draw 21.7% 27.8% 3.60 -21.9%

Away win 33.3% 33.3% 3.00 -0.1%

Over 2.5 69.8% 60.6% 1.65 +15.2%

Over 3.5 48.6% — — —

BTTS 69.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -38.7%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob69.4%

H 45% / xG 1.9-1.7 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dulwich Hamlet1.9

Burgess Hill1.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 48.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DULWICH HAMLET · PPG 1.55

BURGESS HILL · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.55), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Dulwich Hamlet (H) 45.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -10.0%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -21.9%

Burgess Hill (A) 33.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dulwich Hamlet face Burgess Hill in England - Non League Premier - Isthmian on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dulwich Hamlet a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Burgess Hill 33%, so Dulwich Hamlet are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Dulwich Hamlet and 1.7 for Burgess Hill (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dulwich Hamlet are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.75 for Burgess Hill. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Dulwich Hamlet vs Burgess Hill Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Isthmian

Match Preview & Prediction

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