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San Miguel vs Almirante Brown Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 18:30

San Miguel

PPG 1.57 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Almirante Brown

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-029.6%0-118.9%0-26.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.1%1-111.0%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-05.0%2-13.2%2-21.0%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.0%3-10.6%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% — — —

Draw 43.9% — — —

Away win 27.2% — — —

Over 2.5 24.8% — — —

Over 3.5 3.5% — — —

BTTS 39.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob39.4%

D 44% / xG 0.6-0.6 / U2.5 25% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 29.6%

#2 0–1 18.9%

#3 1–0✓ 17.1%

#4 1–1 11.0%

#5 0–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Miguel0.6

Almirante Brown0.6

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 24.8% · O3.5 PROB 3.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MIGUEL · PPG 1.57

ALMIRANTE BROWN · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.57), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

San Miguel (H) 28.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 43.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Almirante Brown (A) 27.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

San Miguel face Almirante Brown in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Miguel a 29% chance, the draw 44% and Almirante Brown 27%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for San Miguel and 0.6 for Almirante Brown (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 25% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Miguel are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.29 for Almirante Brown. This match finished 1-0.

San Miguel vs Almirante Brown Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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