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Tristan Suarez vs Colegiales Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 18:00

Tristan Suarez

PPG 1.71 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Colegiales

PPG 0.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.4%0-19.4%0-22.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.1%1-111.3%1-23.0%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.8%2-16.8%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.2%3-12.8%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.1%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.4% 47.6% 2.10 +5.8%

Draw 28.6% 38.5% 2.60 -15.4%

Away win 21.0% 24.4% 4.10 -8.3%

Over 2.5 35.0% 27.0% 3.70 +29.5%

Over 3.5 10.0% 11.1% 9.00 -6.0%

BTTS 46.2% 36.4% 2.75 +27.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.2%

H 50% / xG 1.2-0.5 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.1%

#2 0–0✓ 17.4%

#3 1–1 11.3%

#4 2–0 12.8%

#5 0–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tristan Suarez1.2

Colegiales0.5

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TRISTAN SUAREZ · PPG 1.71

COLEGIALES · PPG 0.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.71) vs P(Home)=50.4%

Win probability 1X2

Tristan Suarez (H) 50.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +5.8%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -15.4%

Colegiales (A) 21.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tristan Suarez face Colegiales in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tristan Suarez a 50% chance, the draw 29% and Colegiales 21%, so Tristan Suarez are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Tristan Suarez and 0.5 for Colegiales (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tristan Suarez are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.14 for Colegiales. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +29.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Tristan Suarez vs Colegiales Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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