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San Telmo vs Ciudad Bolivar Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 18:00

San Telmo

PPG 1.43 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Ciudad Bolivar

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-026.6%0-120.8%0-28.1%0-32.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.4%1-111.3%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-03.9%2-13.1%2-21.2%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.7%3-10.6%3-20.2%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.2% 42.9% 2.33 -26.2%

Draw 40.4% 38.2% 2.62 +5.9%

Away win 35.4% 29.0% 3.45 +22.1%

Over 2.5 25.8% 29.9% 3.35 -8.1%

Over 3.5 4.6% 11.1% 9.00 -35.2%

BTTS 41.8% 40.0% 2.50 +4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob41.8%

A 35% / xG 0.5-0.8 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 26.6%

#2 0–1✓ 20.8%

#3 1–1 11.3%

#4 1–0 14.4%

#5 0–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Telmo0.5

Ciudad Bolivar0.8

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 4.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN TELMO · PPG 1.43

CIUDAD BOLIVAR · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.43) vs Away GOOD (1.86)

Win probability 1X2

San Telmo (H) 24.2%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -26.2%

Draw 40.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +5.9%

Ciudad Bolivar (A) 35.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Telmo face Ciudad Bolivar in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Telmo a 24% chance, the draw 40% and Ciudad Bolivar 35%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.5 for San Telmo and 0.8 for Ciudad Bolivar (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Telmo are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.86 for Ciudad Bolivar. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +22.1%. This match finished 0-1.

San Telmo vs Ciudad Bolivar Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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