UCV Moquegua vs Universitario Prediction & Tips

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Peru - Primera División Apertura - 16 Estadio 25 de Noviembre· Moquegua Saturday, May 23, 2026 17:45

UCV Moquegua PPG 1.86

0-0 HIT CS2

Universitario PPG 1.00

Home· +22.3% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 33.5%

Odds: 3.65 EV: +22.3%

Draw 28.0%

Odds: 3.35 EV: -3.7%

Away 38.5%

Odds: 2.00 EV: -23.0%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 47.6% Odds: 2.00 -4.8%

Over 3.5 22.8% Odds: 3.55 -11.4%

BTTS 51.6% Odds: 1.77 -8.7%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✔

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 0-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

UCV Moquegua

1.10

Universitario

1.33

Model SuggestionBTTS -8.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -8.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+22.3%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.86) vs P(Home)=33.5%