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UCV Moquegua vs Universitario Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 16 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 17:45

UCV Moquegua

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Universitario

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-111.7%0-27.8%0-33.4%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.7%1-112.9%1-28.6%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.3%2-17.1%2-24.7%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.0%3-12.6%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.5% 27.4% 3.65 +22.3%

Draw 28.0% 29.9% 3.35 -3.7%

Away win 38.5% 50.0% 2.00 -23.0%

Over 2.5 47.6% 50.0% 2.00 -4.8%

Over 3.5 22.8% 28.2% 3.55 -11.4%

BTTS 51.6% 56.5% 1.77 -8.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.6%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0✓ 8.8%

#3 0–1 11.7%

#4 1–2 8.6%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UCV Moquegua1.1

Universitario1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

UCV MOQUEGUA · PPG 1.86

UNIVERSITARIO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.86) vs P(Home)=33.5%

Win probability 1X2

UCV Moquegua (H) 33.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +22.3%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -3.7%

Universitario (A) 38.5%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -23.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

UCV Moquegua face Universitario in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UCV Moquegua a 34% chance, the draw 28% and Universitario 39%, so Universitario are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for UCV Moquegua and 1.3 for Universitario (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UCV Moquegua are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.00 for Universitario. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.3%. This match finished 0-0.

UCV Moquegua vs Universitario Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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