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Tarazona vs Sabadell Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 38 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 16:30

Tarazona

PPG 1.72 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Sabadell

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.0%0-118.0%0-29.0%0-33.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.9%1-112.9%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-04.6%2-14.6%2-22.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.1%3-11.1%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.1% 43.5% 2.30 -21.2%

Draw 34.3% 33.3% 3.00 +2.9%

Away win 37.6% 33.3% 3.00 +12.8%

Over 2.5 35.0% 40.0% 2.50 -12.5%

Over 3.5 9.5% 21.1% 4.75 -32.9%

BTTS 46.2% 48.8% 2.05 -5.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob46.2%

D 34% / xG 0.7-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.0%

#2 0–1 18.0%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 1–0 12.9%

#5 0–2✓ 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tarazona0.7

Sabadell1.0

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 9.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TARAZONA · PPG 1.72

SABADELL · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.72), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Tarazona (H) 28.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -21.2%

Draw 34.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +2.9%

Sabadell (A) 37.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tarazona face Sabadell in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tarazona a 28% chance, the draw 34% and Sabadell 38%, so Sabadell are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Tarazona and 1.0 for Sabadell (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tarazona are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 1.67 for Sabadell. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.8%. This match finished 0-2.

Tarazona vs Sabadell Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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