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Sevilla FC B vs Alcorcon Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 38 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 16:30

Sevilla FC B

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Alcorcon

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.3%0-119.4%0-28.8%0-32.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.6%1-112.3%1-25.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-04.3%2-13.9%2-21.8%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.9%3-10.8%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.6% 20.8% 4.80 +19.5%

Draw 35.7% 30.3% 3.30 +17.8%

Away win 36.8% 58.8% 1.70 -37.4%

Over 2.5 35.0% 45.5% 2.20 -23.0%

Over 3.5 7.2% 25.0% 4.00 -42.7%

BTTS 46.2% 50.0% 2.00 -7.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.2%

D 36% / xG 0.6-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.3%

#2 0–1 19.4%

#3 1–1✓ 12.3%

#4 1–0 13.6%

#5 0–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sevilla FC B0.6

Alcorcon0.9

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 7.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SEVILLA FC B · PPG 1.00

ALCORCON · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Sevilla FC B (H) 27.6%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +19.5%

Draw 35.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +17.8%

Alcorcon (A) 36.8%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -37.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sevilla FC B face Alcorcon in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sevilla FC B a 28% chance, the draw 36% and Alcorcon 37%, so Alcorcon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Sevilla FC B and 0.9 for Alcorcon (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sevilla FC B are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.17 for Alcorcon. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Sevilla FC B vs Alcorcon Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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