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Sanluqueno vs Villarreal B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 38 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 16:30

Sanluqueno

PPG 0.94 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Villarreal B

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.9%0-118.4%0-212.2%0-35.4%0-4+2.4%1 1-09.0%1-111.9%1-27.9%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-02.9%2-13.9%2-22.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.5%3 3-00.6%3-10.8%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.6% 12.5% 8.00 +34.1%

Draw 30.9% 25.0% 4.00 +23.6%

Away win 49.5% 73.5% 1.36 -32.7%

Over 2.5 36.1% 54.1% 1.85 -33.2%

Over 3.5 13.9% 32.3% 3.10 -34.2%

BTTS 48.3% 48.8% 2.05 -1.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.3%

A 50% / xG 0.7-1.3 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 18.4%

#2 0–0 13.9%

#3 1–1✓ 11.9%

#4 0–2 12.2%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sanluqueno0.7

Villarreal B1.3

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.1% · O3.5 PROB 13.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SANLUQUENO · PPG 0.94

VILLARREAL B · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Sanluqueno (H) 19.6%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +34.1%

Draw 30.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +23.6%

Villarreal B (A) 49.5%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -32.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sanluqueno face Villarreal B in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sanluqueno a 20% chance, the draw 31% and Villarreal B 50%, so Villarreal B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Sanluqueno and 1.3 for Villarreal B (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sanluqueno are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 1.50 for Villarreal B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +34.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Sanluqueno vs Villarreal B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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