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Hercules vs Gimnastic T. Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 38 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 16:30

Hercules

PPG 2.17 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Gimnastic T.

PPG 0.72 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-19.8%0-23.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.9%1-112.6%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-18.1%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.6%3-13.4%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.2% 21.7% 4.60 +121.7%

Draw 28.0% 29.4% 3.40 -2.9%

Away win 23.9% 59.5% 1.68 -35.9%

Over 2.5 46.2% 48.8% 2.05 -5.3%

Over 3.5 14.8% 27.4% 3.65 -27.6%

BTTS 48.6% 52.4% 1.91 -7.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.6%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.2%

#2 1–0 16.9%

#3 1–1✓ 12.6%

#4 2–0 10.9%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hercules1.3

Gimnastic T.0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 14.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HERCULES · PPG 2.17

GIMNASTIC T. · PPG 0.72

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=48.2%

Win probability 1X2

Hercules (H) 48.2%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +121.7%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -2.9%

Gimnastic T. (A) 23.9%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -35.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hercules face Gimnastic T. in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hercules a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Gimnastic T. 24%, so Hercules are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Hercules and 0.7 for Gimnastic T. (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hercules are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.72 for Gimnastic T.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +121.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Hercules vs Gimnastic T. Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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