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Europa vs UD Ibiza Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 38 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 16:30

Europa

PPG 1.72 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

UD Ibiza

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-111.3%0-25.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.6%1-113.3%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.1%2-17.9%2-23.9%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.2%3-13.1%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 69.0% 1.45 -38.4%

Draw 30.3% 27.4% 3.65 +10.6%

Away win 27.2% 13.5% 7.40 +60.8%

Over 2.5 46.2% 42.0% 2.38 +10.0%

Over 3.5 17.3% 22.2% 4.50 -13.3%

BTTS 49.2% 40.0% 2.50 +23.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.2%

H 42% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.5%

#3 1–0 13.6%

#4 0–1 11.3%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Europa1.2

UD Ibiza1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.3%

Form & verdict PPG

EUROPA · PPG 1.72

UD IBIZA · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.72) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Europa (H) 42.5%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -38.4%

Draw 30.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +10.6%

UD Ibiza (A) 27.2%

ODDS 7.40 · IMPLIED 13.5% EV +60.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Europa face UD Ibiza in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Europa a 43% chance, the draw 30% and UD Ibiza 27%, so Europa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Europa and 1.0 for UD Ibiza (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Europa are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 1.00 for UD Ibiza. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +60.8%. This match finished 3-2.

Europa vs UD Ibiza Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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