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Atletico M. B vs Algeciras Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 38 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 16:30

Atletico M. B

PPG 2.06 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Algeciras

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-18.3%0-23.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.2%1-112.3%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.1%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.2%3-14.5%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 46.5% 2.15 +7.9%

Draw 26.2% 31.3% 3.20 -9.7%

Away win 23.6% 32.3% 3.10 -16.1%

Over 2.5 46.9% 52.4% 1.91 -10.4%

Over 3.5 21.0% 30.8% 3.25 -19.1%

BTTS 50.5% 59.9% 1.67 -15.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.5%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 14.2%

#3 0–0 9.6%

#4 2–0 10.5%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico M. B1.5

Algeciras0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 21.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO M. B · PPG 2.06

ALGECIRAS · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs P(Home)=50.2%

Win probability 1X2

Atletico M. B (H) 50.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +7.9%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.7%

Algeciras (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -16.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico M. B face Algeciras in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico M. B a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Algeciras 24%, so Atletico M. B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Atletico M. B and 0.9 for Algeciras (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico M. B are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.06 for Algeciras. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.9%. This match finished 3-1.

Atletico M. B vs Algeciras Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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