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Antequera vs Torremolinos Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 38 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 16:30

Antequera

PPG 1.39 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Torremolinos

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-110.5%0-25.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.3%1-113.2%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.3%2-18.3%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.5%3-13.5%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 33.9% 2.95 +33.6%

Draw 28.7% 31.3% 3.20 -4.9%

Away win 26.1% 44.4% 2.25 -24.8%

Over 2.5 46.2% 47.6% 2.10 -3.0%

Over 3.5 19.0% 25.6% 3.90 -15.5%

BTTS 51.5% 54.6% 1.83 -5.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.5%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.6%

#3 1–0 13.3%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Antequera1.3

Torremolinos1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 19.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ANTEQUERA · PPG 1.39

TORREMOLINOS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.39) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Antequera (H) 45.3%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +33.6%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -4.9%

Torremolinos (A) 26.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Antequera face Torremolinos in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Antequera a 45% chance, the draw 29% and Torremolinos 26%, so Antequera are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Antequera and 1.0 for Torremolinos (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Antequera are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 1.00 for Torremolinos. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +33.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Antequera vs Torremolinos Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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