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Arenteiro vs Ponferradina Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 15:00

Arenteiro

PPG 1.06 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Ponferradina

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.9%0-117.8%0-29.3%0-33.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-012.3%1-112.9%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-04.5%2-14.7%2-22.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.1%3-11.1%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.2% 9.4% 10.60 +113.0%

Draw 33.2% 24.4% 4.10 +36.1%

Away win 39.5% 76.9% 1.30 -48.6%

Over 2.5 35.0% 50.0% 2.00 -30.0%

Over 3.5 10.5% 28.6% 3.50 -38.0%

BTTS 46.2% 41.7% 2.40 +10.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob46.2%

A 40% / xG 0.7-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.9%

#2 0–1✓ 17.8%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 1–0 12.3%

#5 0–2 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arenteiro0.7

Ponferradina1.0

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ARENTEIRO · PPG 1.06

PONFERRADINA · PPG 1.33

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Arenteiro (H) 27.2%

ODDS 10.60 · IMPLIED 9.4% EV +113.0%

Draw 33.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +36.1%

Ponferradina (A) 39.5%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -48.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arenteiro face Ponferradina in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arenteiro a 27% chance, the draw 33% and Ponferradina 40%, so Ponferradina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Arenteiro and 1.0 for Ponferradina (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arenteiro are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.33 for Ponferradina. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +113.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Arenteiro vs Ponferradina Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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