Today / England - Non League Premier - Isthmian / Aveley vs Carshalton

Aveley vs Carshalton Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Isthmian

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Aveley

PPG 1.95 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Carshalton

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.5% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a clear edge.

+20.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-12.0%0-21.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.5%1-15.8%1-23.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.4%2-18.3%2-25.3%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.1%3-17.9%3-25.1%3-32.2%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-08.9%4+-111.5%4+-27.4%4+-33.2%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.0% 62.5% 1.60 +12.0%

Draw 15.5% 24.4% 4.10 -36.4%

Away win 14.5% 24.4% 4.10 -40.6%

Over 2.5 78.5% 65.4% 1.53 +20.1%

Over 3.5 59.8% — — —

BTTS 68.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -38.7%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob68.4%

H 70% / xG 2.9-1.3 / O2.5 78% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.3%

#2 3–1 7.9%

#3 2–0 6.4%

#4 3–0 6.1%

#5 1–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aveley2.9

Carshalton1.3

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.5% · O3.5 PROB 59.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AVELEY · PPG 1.95

CARSHALTON · PPG 0.85

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.95), Away POOR (0.85) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Aveley (H) 70.0%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV +12.0%

Draw 15.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -36.4%

Carshalton (A) 14.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -40.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aveley face Carshalton in England - Non League Premier - Isthmian on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aveley a 70% chance, the draw 16% and Carshalton 14%, so Aveley are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Aveley and 1.3 for Carshalton (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aveley are averaging 1.95 points per game versus 0.85 for Carshalton. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Aveley vs Carshalton Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Isthmian

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - Non League Premier - Isthmian Predictions