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Cibalia vs Orijent Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 15:30

Cibalia

PPG 2.20 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Orijent

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs P(Home)=51.9%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-17.9%0-23.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.2%1-111.9%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.0%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.8%3-14.5%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% — — —

Draw 26.6% — — —

Away win 21.6% — — —

Over 2.5 46.3% — — —

Over 3.5 19.9% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 15.2%

#3 0–0 10.1%

#4 2–0 11.5%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cibalia1.5

Orijent0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CIBALIA · PPG 2.20

ORIJENT · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs P(Home)=51.9%

Win probability 1X2

Cibalia (H) 51.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Orijent (A) 21.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Cibalia face Orijent in Croatia - First NL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cibalia a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Orijent 22%, so Cibalia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Cibalia and 0.8 for Orijent (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cibalia are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.00 for Orijent. This match finished 3-2.

Cibalia vs Orijent Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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