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Dugopolje vs Rudes Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 11:45

Dugopolje

PPG 2.25 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

Rudes

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-112.2%0-26.0%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.6%1-113.5%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.5%2-17.4%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.8%3-12.7%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.8% 40.8% 2.45 -2.5%

Draw 31.7% 33.3% 3.00 -4.9%

Away win 28.5% 37.7% 2.65 -14.7%

Over 2.5 46.2% 47.6% 2.10 -3.0%

Over 3.5 16.0% 26.7% 3.75 -24.0%

BTTS 49.2% 52.4% 1.91 -6.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.2%

H 40% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.3%

#3 1–0 13.6%

#4 0–1 12.2%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dugopolje1.1

Rudes1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DUGOPOLJE · PPG 2.25

RUDES · PPG 1.53

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.25) > Away GOOD (1.53)

Win probability 1X2

Dugopolje (H) 39.8%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -2.5%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -4.9%

Rudes (A) 28.5%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dugopolje face Rudes in Croatia - First NL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dugopolje a 40% chance, the draw 32% and Rudes 28%, so Dugopolje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Dugopolje and 1.0 for Rudes (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dugopolje are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.53 for Rudes. This match finished 0-3.

Dugopolje vs Rudes Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Croatia - First NL Predictions