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Sesvete vs Bijelo Brdo Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 32 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 11:45

Sesvete

PPG 1.88 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Bijelo Brdo

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.9%0-110.7%0-23.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.9%1-111.7%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.5%2-16.5%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.2%3-12.4%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 73.5% 1.36 -36.5%

Draw 32.4% 26.3% 3.80 +23.1%

Away win 20.9% 13.2% 7.60 +35.3%

Over 2.5 35.0% 50.0% 2.00 -30.0%

Over 3.5 8.8% 26.9% 3.72 -40.4%

BTTS 46.2% 43.5% 2.30 +6.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.2%

H 47% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.9%

#2 1–0 20.9%

#3 1–1 11.7%

#4 2–0 11.5%

#5 0–1 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sesvete1.1

Bijelo Brdo0.6

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 8.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SESVETE · PPG 1.88

BIJELO BRDO · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=46.7%

Win probability 1X2

Sesvete (H) 46.7%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -36.5%

Draw 32.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +23.1%

Bijelo Brdo (A) 20.9%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV +35.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sesvete face Bijelo Brdo in Croatia - First NL on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sesvete a 47% chance, the draw 32% and Bijelo Brdo 21%, so Sesvete are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Sesvete and 0.6 for Bijelo Brdo (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sesvete are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.81 for Bijelo Brdo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +35.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Sesvete vs Bijelo Brdo Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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