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Falkenberg vs Varnamo Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 15:00

Falkenberg

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Varnamo

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 57% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+12.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-14.3%0-22.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.7%1-19.2%1-25.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.2%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.8%3-16.9%3-24.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-16.0%4+-23.6%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% 44.4% 2.25 +16.3%

Draw 24.0% 28.6% 3.50 -9.6%

Away win 24.3% 33.9% 2.95 -17.0%

Over 2.5 61.4% 54.6% 1.83 +12.4%

Over 3.5 42.3% 33.3% 3.00 +26.9%

BTTS 59.7% 61.7% 1.62 -3.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 107 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.7%

H 52% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 3–1✓ 6.9%

#5 1–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Falkenberg2.1

Varnamo1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FALKENBERG · PPG 1.75

VARNAMO · PPG 0.75

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

57%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=51.7%

Win probability 1X2

Falkenberg (H) 51.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +16.3%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.6%

Varnamo (A) 24.3%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Falkenberg face Varnamo in Sweden - Superettan on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Falkenberg a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Varnamo 24%, so Falkenberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Falkenberg and 1.2 for Varnamo (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Falkenberg are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.75 for Varnamo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +26.9%. This match finished 3-1.

Falkenberg vs Varnamo Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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