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Sweden - Superettan Saturday, May 23, 2026 15:00 
Falkenberg PPG 1.75 
Varnamo PPG 0.75
Sweden - Superettan Saturday, May 23, 2026 15:00 Falkenberg PPG 1.753-1 HIT CS4
Varnamo PPG 0.75Over3.5· +26.9% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Over 2.5
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 61.4% Odds: 1.83 +12.4%
Over 3.5 42.3% Odds: 3.00 +26.9%
BTTS 59.7% Odds: 1.62 -3.3%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 2-1 ✘
3rd 2-0 ✘
4th 3-1 ✔
5th 1-0 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Falkenberg 2.12
Varnamo 1.20
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5 +12.4% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+26.9%)
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+26.9%)
League Track Record ↗
Based on 24 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 50%
O2.5/Under 50%
BTTS/No 54%
Score Hit 38%
ROI 2.9%
Bet Hit 57% (14 bets)
Verdict & Form
🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 95%
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=51.7%