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Paradiso vs Breitenrain Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 14:00

Paradiso

PPG 1.06 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Breitenrain

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-16.2%0-25.1%0-32.8%0-4+1.7%1 1-06.1%1-110.1%1-28.3%1-34.6%1-4+2.7%2 2-05.0%2-18.3%2-26.8%2-33.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.7%3-14.5%3-23.7%3-32.0%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.7%4+-22.2%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% 64.5% 1.55 -42.2%

Draw 25.0% 25.3% 3.95 -0.8%

Away win 37.7% 20.0% 5.00 +88.5%

Over 2.5 61.4% 60.6% 1.65 +1.3%

Over 3.5 41.7% 38.5% 2.60 +8.4%

BTTS 59.7% 59.9% 1.67 -0.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.7%

A 38% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2 8.3%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–0 3.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paradiso1.6

Breitenrain1.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PARADISO · PPG 1.06

BREITENRAIN · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.06) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Paradiso (H) 37.3%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -42.2%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -0.8%

Breitenrain (A) 37.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +88.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paradiso face Breitenrain in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paradiso a 37% chance, the draw 25% and Breitenrain 38%, so Breitenrain are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Paradiso and 1.6 for Breitenrain (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paradiso are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.75 for Breitenrain. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +88.5%. This match finished 4-0.

Paradiso vs Breitenrain Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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