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Lugano B vs Lausanne B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 14:00

Lugano B

PPG 1.25 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lausanne B

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-13.1%0-23.1%0-32.0%0-4+1.6%1 1-03.4%1-16.8%1-26.7%1-34.4%1-4+3.4%2 2-03.7%2-17.4%2-27.3%2-34.8%2-4+3.7%3 3-02.7%3-15.3%3-25.3%3-33.5%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-14.8%4+-24.7%4+-33.1%4+-4+2.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.8% 34.5% 2.90 +24.1%

Draw 22.1% 25.0% 4.00 -7.0%

Away win 35.1% 50.0% 2.00 -29.8%

Over 2.5 63.9% 75.2% 1.33 -15.0%

Over 3.5 59.4% 54.1% 1.85 +9.9%

BTTS 64.1% 76.9% 1.30 -16.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob64.1%

H 43% / xG 2.2-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.8%

#2 2–1 7.4%

#3 2–2✓ 7.3%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 3–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lugano B2.2

Lausanne B2.0

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 59.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LUGANO B · PPG 1.25

LAUSANNE B · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.25) vs P(Home)=42.8%

Win probability 1X2

Lugano B (H) 42.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +24.1%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.0%

Lausanne B (A) 35.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -29.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lugano B face Lausanne B in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lugano B a 43% chance, the draw 22% and Lausanne B 35%, so Lugano B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Lugano B and 2.0 for Lausanne B (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lugano B are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.44 for Lausanne B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.1%. This match finished 2-2.

Lugano B vs Lausanne B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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