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FC Zurich B vs Luzern B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 14:00

FC Zurich B

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Luzern B

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.9% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.7%0-21.9%0-31.4%0-4+1.4%1 1-02.0%1-14.5%1-25.0%1-33.8%1-4+3.6%2 2-02.6%2-15.9%2-26.6%2-35.0%2-4+4.7%3 3-02.3%3-15.2%3-25.8%3-34.4%3-4+4.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-16.5%4+-27.3%4+-35.4%4+-4+5.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 50.0% 2.00 -8.4%

Draw 21.4% 24.4% 4.10 -7.4%

Away win 32.9% 36.4% 2.75 -9.5%

Over 2.5 78.9% 80.0% 1.25 -1.4%

Over 3.5 71.7% 60.6% 1.65 +18.3%

BTTS 66.7% 80.0% 1.25 -16.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob66.7%

H 46% / xG 2.6-2.2 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.6%

#2 2–1 5.9%

#3 3–2 5.8%

#4 3–1 5.2%

#5 1–1 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Zurich B2.6

Luzern B2.2

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.9% · O3.5 PROB 71.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FC ZURICH B · PPG 1.00

LUZERN B · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

FC Zurich B (H) 45.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -8.4%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -7.4%

Luzern B (A) 32.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Zurich B face Luzern B in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Zurich B a 46% chance, the draw 21% and Luzern B 33%, so FC Zurich B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for FC Zurich B and 2.2 for Luzern B (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Zurich B are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.75 for Luzern B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.3%. This match finished 2-3.

FC Zurich B vs Luzern B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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