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Bavois vs Cham Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 14:00

Bavois

PPG 1.88 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Cham

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.8%0-22.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-05.4%1-18.3%1-26.3%1-33.2%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.9%2-18.9%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.3%3-16.5%3-24.9%3-32.5%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-15.8%4+-24.4%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 40.0% 2.50 +28.5%

Draw 23.9% 26.0% 3.85 -4.8%

Away win 24.7% 44.4% 2.25 -26.7%

Over 2.5 63.9% 70.4% 1.42 -9.3%

Over 3.5 50.3% 48.8% 2.05 +3.1%

BTTS 62.5% 73.5% 1.36 -15.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.5%

H 51% / xG 2.2-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 3–1 6.5%

#5 1–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bavois2.2

Cham1.5

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 50.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BAVOIS · PPG 1.88

CHAM · PPG 1.31

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.88) > Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Bavois (H) 51.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +28.5%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -4.8%

Cham (A) 24.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -26.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bavois face Cham in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bavois a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Cham 25%, so Bavois are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Bavois and 1.5 for Cham (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bavois are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.31 for Cham. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +28.5%. This match finished 3-2.

Bavois vs Cham Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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