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Basel B vs Vevey Sports Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 14:00

Basel B

PPG 1.88 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Vevey Sports

PPG 0.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.0% vs bookmaker-implied 94.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-10.5%0-20.2%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-02.4%1-12.1%1-21.0%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-05.1%2-14.6%2-22.1%2-30.6%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.3%3-16.6%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-025.2%4+-122.8%4+-210.3%4+-33.1%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.5% 91.7% 1.09 -19.9%

Draw 18.8% 12.2% 8.20 +32.5%

Away win 7.7% 5.9% 17.00 +18.5%

Over 2.5 79.0% 94.3% 1.06 -16.3%

Over 3.5 76.3% 74.1% 1.35 +3.0%

BTTS 59.7% 62.5% 1.60 -4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 77%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)4.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob59.7%

H 74% / xG 4.3-0.9 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 7.8%

#2 3–0✓ 7.3%

#3 4–1 7.1%

#4 5–0 6.7%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Basel B4.3

Vevey Sports0.9

COMBINED 5.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 76.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BASEL B · PPG 1.88

VEVEY SPORTS · PPG 0.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.88), Away POOR (0.13) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Basel B (H) 73.5%

ODDS 1.09 · IMPLIED 91.7% EV -19.9%

Draw 18.8%

ODDS 8.20 · IMPLIED 12.2% EV +32.5%

Vevey Sports (A) 7.7%

ODDS 17.00 · IMPLIED 5.9% EV +18.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Basel B face Vevey Sports in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Basel B a 74% chance, the draw 19% and Vevey Sports 8%, so Basel B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.3 for Basel B and 0.9 for Vevey Sports (5.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Basel B are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.13 for Vevey Sports. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +32.5%. This match finished 3-0.

Basel B vs Vevey Sports Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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