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Tikves vs Aresimi Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 14:00

Tikves

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Aresimi

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 65.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+15.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-15.2%0-23.7%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.9%1-19.8%1-27.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-19.3%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.1%3-15.8%3-24.1%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.2%4+-23.0%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.2% 64.5% 1.55 -26.8%

Draw 25.3% 25.3% 3.95 -0.1%

Away win 27.5% 20.0% 5.00 +37.5%

Over 2.5 64.1% 57.8% 1.73 +10.9%

Over 3.5 42.0% 35.1% 2.85 +19.7%

BTTS 65.7% 57.1% 1.75 +15.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob65.7%

H 47% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tikves1.9

Aresimi1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TIKVES · PPG 1.33

ARESIMI · PPG 1.13

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Tikves (H) 47.2%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -26.8%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -0.1%

Aresimi (A) 27.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +37.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tikves face Aresimi in Macedonia - First League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tikves a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Aresimi 28%, so Tikves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Tikves and 1.4 for Aresimi (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tikves are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.13 for Aresimi. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +37.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Tikves vs Aresimi Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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