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United Nordic vs Brage Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:00

United Nordic

PPG 2.25 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Brage

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 61% chance

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-13.9%0-23.7%0-32.3%0-4+1.7%1 1-04.1%1-17.8%1-27.4%1-34.6%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.1%2-17.7%2-27.3%2-34.6%2-4+3.3%3 3-02.7%3-15.1%3-24.8%3-33.0%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-14.0%4+-23.8%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% 46.5% 2.15 -9.3%

Draw 23.0% 27.8% 3.60 -10.3%

Away win 34.9% 33.3% 3.00 +4.7%

Over 2.5 63.9% 59.9% 1.67 +6.7%

Over 3.5 54.1% 37.7% 2.65 +43.4%

BTTS 63.0% 65.4% 1.53 -3.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 108 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.0%

H 42% / xG 2.0-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.8%

#2 2–1 7.7%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 3–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

United Nordic2.0

Brage1.9

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 54.1%

Form & verdict PPG

UNITED NORDIC · PPG 2.25

BRAGE · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.25), Away EXCELLENT (2.25)

Win probability 1X2

United Nordic (H) 42.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -9.3%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -10.3%

Brage (A) 34.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +4.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

United Nordic face Brage in Sweden - Superettan on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives United Nordic a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Brage 35%, so United Nordic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for United Nordic and 1.9 for Brage (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, United Nordic are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 2.25 for Brage. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +43.4%. This match finished 1-0.

United Nordic vs Brage Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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