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Oddevold vs Ostersunds Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:00

Oddevold

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Ostersunds

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 57% chance

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+18.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-13.3%0-23.2%0-32.1%0-4+1.6%1 1-03.7%1-17.1%1-26.9%1-34.4%1-4+3.3%2 2-03.9%2-17.5%2-27.3%2-34.7%2-4+3.5%3 3-02.8%3-15.3%3-25.2%3-33.3%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-14.6%4+-24.5%4+-32.9%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 47.6% 2.10 -10.8%

Draw 22.5% 28.6% 3.50 -12.8%

Away win 35.0% 30.3% 3.30 +15.5%

Over 2.5 63.9% 54.1% 1.85 +18.2%

Over 3.5 57.8% 31.3% 3.20 +85.0%

BTTS 63.0% 59.9% 1.67 +5.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 107 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.0%

H 42% / xG 2.1-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.1%

#2 2–1 7.5%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 1–2 6.9%

#5 3–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oddevold2.1

Ostersunds1.9

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 57.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ODDEVOLD · PPG 1.25

OSTERSUNDS · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Oddevold (H) 42.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -10.8%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -12.8%

Ostersunds (A) 35.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +15.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oddevold face Ostersunds in Sweden - Superettan on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oddevold a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Ostersunds 35%, so Oddevold are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Oddevold and 1.9 for Ostersunds (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oddevold are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.50 for Ostersunds. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +85.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Oddevold vs Ostersunds Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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