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Kalmar vs Degerfors Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:00

Kalmar

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Degerfors

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 52% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-111.5%0-26.2%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.4%1-113.3%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.2%2-17.7%2-24.2%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.8%3-13.0%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.5% 52.6% 1.90 -28.7%

Draw 29.7% 30.3% 3.30 -1.2%

Away win 32.8% 23.8% 4.20 +37.8%

Over 2.5 46.2% 45.5% 2.20 +1.6%

Over 3.5 18.8% 25.0% 4.00 -14.9%

BTTS 51.6% 52.4% 1.91 -1.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.6%

D 30% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.7%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 0–1 11.5%

#5 2–1✓ 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kalmar1.2

Degerfors1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KALMAR · PPG 1.75

DEGERFORS · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

Chance this pick lands

52%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Kalmar (H) 37.5%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -28.7%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -1.2%

Degerfors (A) 32.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +37.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kalmar face Degerfors in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kalmar a 38% chance, the draw 30% and Degerfors 33%, so Kalmar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Kalmar and 1.1 for Degerfors (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kalmar are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.67 for Degerfors. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +37.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Kalmar vs Degerfors Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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