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Halmstad vs Orgryte Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:00

Halmstad

PPG 0.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Orgryte

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 52% chance

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-18.1%0-24.6%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.7%1-112.2%1-27.0%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.2%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.0%3-14.6%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.4%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 45.5% 2.20 +4.5%

Draw 26.6% 29.4% 3.40 -5.7%

Away win 25.9% 31.3% 3.20 -10.3%

Over 2.5 52.6% 52.4% 1.91 +0.5%

Over 3.5 27.4% 30.3% 3.30 -5.8%

BTTS 52.6% 59.9% 1.67 -12.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -11.8%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 0–0 7.1%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 2–0✓ 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Halmstad1.5

Orgryte1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HALMSTAD · PPG 0.50

ORGRYTE · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

52%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.50), Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Halmstad (H) 47.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +4.5%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.7%

Orgryte (A) 25.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Halmstad face Orgryte in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Halmstad a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Orgryte 26%, so Halmstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Halmstad and 1.1 for Orgryte (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Halmstad are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 0.75 for Orgryte. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Halmstad vs Orgryte Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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