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SalPa vs TPV Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:00

SalPa

PPG 1.75 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

TPV

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-13.4%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.8%1-17.9%1-22.9%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.7%2-19.3%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.9%3-17.3%3-22.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.1%4+-17.4%4+-22.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.1% 69.4% 1.44 -9.1%

Draw 22.2% 23.1% 4.33 -2.3%

Away win 14.7% 18.2% 5.50 -11.5%

Over 2.5 60.1% 71.4% 1.40 -15.9%

Over 3.5 37.1% 50.0% 2.00 -25.8%

BTTS 51.6% 65.4% 1.53 -21.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob51.6%

H 63% / xG 2.3-0.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.7%

#2 3–0 9.9%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 1–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SalPa2.3

TPV0.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SALPA · PPG 1.75

TPV · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

SalPa (H) 63.1%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -9.1%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -2.3%

TPV (A) 14.7%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

SalPa face TPV in Finland - Ykkönen on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SalPa a 63% chance, the draw 22% and TPV 15%, so SalPa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for SalPa and 0.7 for TPV (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SalPa are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.00 for TPV. This match finished 4-2.

SalPa vs TPV Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Ykkönen Predictions