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Blauw Geel 38 vs Scheveningen Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

Blauw Geel 38

PPG 1.31 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Scheveningen

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.1%0-23.4%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.4%1-19.8%1-26.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.5%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.6%3-16.2%3-24.1%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-14.7%4+-23.1%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% — — —

Draw 24.0% — — —

Away win 24.3% — — —

Over 2.5 61.4% — — —

Over 3.5 41.3% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.2%

#4 1–2 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Blauw Geel 381.9

Scheveningen1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BLAUW GEEL 38 · PPG 1.31

SCHEVENINGEN · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.31), Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Blauw Geel 38 (H) 51.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Scheveningen (A) 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Blauw Geel 38 face Scheveningen in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Blauw Geel 38 a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Scheveningen 24%, so Blauw Geel 38 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Blauw Geel 38 and 1.3 for Scheveningen (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Blauw Geel 38 are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.06 for Scheveningen. This match finished 3-2.

Blauw Geel 38 vs Scheveningen Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

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