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Blauw Geel 38 vs UNA Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 12:00

Blauw Geel 38

PPG 1.40 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

UNA

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.2%0-23.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.9%1 1-05.7%1-18.7%1-26.6%1-33.4%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.8%2-18.9%2-26.9%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.0%3-16.2%3-24.7%3-32.4%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-15.1%4+-23.9%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 57.1% 1.75 -21.1%

Draw 27.6% 29.4% 3.40 -6.2%

Away win 27.3% 26.7% 3.75 +2.4%

Over 2.5 60.5% — — —

Over 3.5 48.4% — — —

BTTS 58.5% 66.7% 1.50 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.5%

H 45% / xG 2.1-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 3–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Blauw Geel 382.1

UNA1.5

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 48.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BLAUW GEEL 38 · PPG 1.40

UNA · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Blauw Geel 38 (H) 45.1%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -21.1%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -6.2%

UNA (A) 27.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Blauw Geel 38 face UNA in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Blauw Geel 38 a 45% chance, the draw 28% and UNA 27%, so Blauw Geel 38 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Blauw Geel 38 and 1.5 for UNA (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Blauw Geel 38 are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.07 for UNA. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Blauw Geel 38 vs UNA Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

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