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Grorud vs Honefoss Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 12:00

Grorud

PPG 1.33 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Honefoss

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-112.9%0-210.2%0-35.4%0-4+3.0%1 1-07.6%1-111.9%1-29.4%1-35.0%1-4+2.8%2 2-03.5%2-15.5%2-24.4%2-32.3%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.1%3-11.7%3-21.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.9% 43.5% 2.30 -25.6%

Draw 27.5% 27.0% 3.70 +1.1%

Away win 47.6% 39.2% 2.55 +21.4%

Over 2.5 47.6% 67.6% 1.48 -29.5%

Over 3.5 24.3% 45.5% 2.20 -27.9%

BTTS 51.6% 70.4% 1.42 -26.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -0.6%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob51.6%

A 48% / xG 0.9-1.6 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 0–1 12.9%

#3 0–2 10.2%

#4 0–0 8.2%

#5 1–2 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grorud0.9

Honefoss1.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 24.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GRORUD · PPG 1.33

HONEFOSS · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Grorud (H) 24.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -25.6%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +1.1%

Honefoss (A) 47.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +21.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grorud face Honefoss in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grorud a 25% chance, the draw 28% and Honefoss 48%, so Honefoss are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Grorud and 1.6 for Honefoss (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grorud are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.33 for Honefoss. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.4%. This match finished 3-2.

Grorud vs Honefoss Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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