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Worksop Town vs Peterborough S. Prediction— England - National League - North

North - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Worksop Town

PPG 1.32 · HOME

8 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Peterborough S.

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.9%0-22.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.2%1-19.8%1-25.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.8%2-25.9%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.5%3-16.5%3-23.9%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-15.2%4+-23.1%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.1% 59.5% 1.68 -5.8%

Draw 21.5% 27.0% 3.70 -20.4%

Away win 22.4% 23.8% 4.20 -5.9%

Over 2.5 62.1% 65.4% 1.53 -5.0%

Over 3.5 39.8% 43.5% 2.30 -8.5%

BTTS 60.4% 67.6% 1.48 -10.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 8-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.4%

H 56% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.8%

#2 1–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–0 8.2%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Worksop Town2.0

Peterborough S.1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

WORKSOP TOWN · PPG 1.32

PETERBOROUGH S. · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.32) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Worksop Town (H) 56.1%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -5.8%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -20.4%

Peterborough S. (A) 22.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Worksop Town face Peterborough S. in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Worksop Town a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Peterborough S. 22%, so Worksop Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Worksop Town and 1.2 for Peterborough S. (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Worksop Town are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 0.67 for Peterborough S.. This match finished 8-0.

Worksop Town vs Peterborough S. Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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