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Dalian Yingbo vs Chengdu Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 12:00

Dalian Yingbo

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Chengdu

PPG 2.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-17.8%0-28.7%0-36.6%0-4+6.3%1 1-03.8%1-18.7%1-29.8%1-37.3%1-4+7.0%2 2-02.1%2-14.8%2-25.4%2-34.1%2-4+3.9%3 3-00.8%3-11.8%3-22.0%3-31.5%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.8% 29.9% 3.35 -26.2%

Draw 22.6% 29.0% 3.45 -13.2%

Away win 60.6% 50.5% 1.98 +20.0%

Over 2.5 62.4% 57.8% 1.73 +8.0%

Over 3.5 43.5% 36.4% 2.75 +19.6%

BTTS 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob59.7%

A 61% / xG 1.1-2.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 8.7%

#4 1–3 7.3%

#5 0–3 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dalian Yingbo1.1

Chengdu2.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.4% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DALIAN YINGBO · PPG 2.00

CHENGDU · PPG 2.67

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs Home EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Dalian Yingbo (H) 16.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -26.2%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -13.2%

Chengdu (A) 60.6%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV +20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dalian Yingbo face Chengdu in China - Super League on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dalian Yingbo a 17% chance, the draw 23% and Chengdu 61%, so Chengdu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Dalian Yingbo and 2.3 for Chengdu (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dalian Yingbo are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.67 for Chengdu. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +20.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Dalian Yingbo vs Chengdu Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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