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Telford Utd vs Darlington Prediction— England - National League - North

North - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Telford Utd

PPG 1.73 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Darlington

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-14.0%0-23.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-05.2%1-18.3%1-26.6%1-33.5%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.5%2-18.8%2-27.0%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.9%3-16.1%3-24.9%3-32.6%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-15.2%4+-24.2%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 47.6% 2.10 +4.4%

Draw 21.0% 27.8% 3.60 -24.4%

Away win 29.3% 33.9% 2.95 -13.6%

Over 2.5 71.3% 69.0% 1.45 +3.4%

Over 3.5 50.4% 46.5% 2.15 +8.4%

BTTS 69.8% 71.4% 1.40 -2.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob69.8%

H 50% / xG 2.1-1.6 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 1–1✓ 8.3%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Telford Utd2.1

Darlington1.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.3% · O3.5 PROB 50.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TELFORD UTD · PPG 1.73

DARLINGTON · PPG 1.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.73), Away GOOD (1.64)

Win probability 1X2

Telford Utd (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +4.4%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -24.4%

Darlington (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Telford Utd face Darlington in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Telford Utd a 50% chance, the draw 21% and Darlington 29%, so Telford Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Telford Utd and 1.6 for Darlington (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Telford Utd are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.64 for Darlington. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Telford Utd vs Darlington Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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