Today / China - Super League / Beijing Guoan vs Henan SL

Beijing Guoan vs Henan SL Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 14 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 11:35

Beijing Guoan

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Henan SL

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-17.8%0-24.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.9%1-112.0%1-26.7%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.3%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.3%3-14.8%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 63.3% 1.58 -22.7%

Draw 26.0% 25.0% 4.00 +2.4%

Away win 25.2% 20.8% 4.80 +12.6%

Over 2.5 52.6% 64.5% 1.55 -18.5%

Over 3.5 27.6% 41.7% 2.40 -20.3%

BTTS 52.6% 63.7% 1.57 -17.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 49% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 0–0 7.0%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Beijing Guoan1.5

Henan SL1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BEIJING GUOAN · PPG 1.33

HENAN SL · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Beijing Guoan (H) 48.9%

ODDS 1.58 · IMPLIED 63.3% EV -22.7%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +2.4%

Henan SL (A) 25.2%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Beijing Guoan face Henan SL in China - Super League on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Beijing Guoan a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Henan SL 25%, so Beijing Guoan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Beijing Guoan and 1.1 for Henan SL (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.14 for Henan SL. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Beijing Guoan vs Henan SL Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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