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Guangxi H. vs Nantong Zhiyun Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 11:30

Guangxi H.

PPG 3.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Nantong Zhiyun

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.9%0-112.9%0-23.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.4%1-112.0%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.5%2-15.6%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.9%3-11.7%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.5%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 52.4% 1.91 -18.8%

Draw 34.0% 32.3% 3.10 +5.4%

Away win 23.5% 25.6% 3.90 -5.0%

Over 2.5 31.1% 45.5% 2.20 -31.6%

Over 3.5 6.8% 25.0% 4.00 -43.7%

BTTS 46.2% 52.4% 1.91 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -33.6%

Bet Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.2%

H 42% / xG 0.9-0.6 / U2.5 31% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 21.9%

#2 1–0 20.4%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 0–1 12.9%

#5 2–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guangxi H.0.9

Nantong Zhiyun0.6

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.1% · O3.5 PROB 6.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GUANGXI H. · PPG 3.00

NANTONG ZHIYUN · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=42.5%

Win probability 1X2

Guangxi H. (H) 42.5%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -18.8%

Draw 34.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +5.4%

Nantong Zhiyun (A) 23.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guangxi H. face Nantong Zhiyun in China - League One on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guangxi H. a 43% chance, the draw 34% and Nantong Zhiyun 24%, so Guangxi H. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Guangxi H. and 0.6 for Nantong Zhiyun (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guangxi H. are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Nantong Zhiyun. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Guangxi H. vs Nantong Zhiyun Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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