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South Shields vs Bedford Town Prediction— England - National League - North

North - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

South Shields

PPG 2.45 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Bedford Town

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 81.1% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-11.8%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.7%1-15.4%1-22.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.0%2-18.1%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.0%3-18.1%3-23.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-015.7%4+-112.7%4+-25.1%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 81.1% 85.5% 1.17 -5.1%

Draw 11.9% 17.2% 5.80 -31.0%

Away win 7.0% 7.7% 13.00 -9.0%

Over 2.5 73.2% 75.2% 1.33 -2.6%

Over 3.5 52.8% 55.6% 1.80 -5.0%

BTTS 52.7% 57.1% 1.75 -7.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.7%

H 81% / xG 3.0-0.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.0%

#2 3–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 3–1 8.1%

#5 4–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South Shields3.0

Bedford Town0.8

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.2% · O3.5 PROB 52.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH SHIELDS · PPG 2.45

BEDFORD TOWN · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.45), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

South Shields (H) 81.1%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -5.1%

Draw 11.9%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -31.0%

Bedford Town (A) 7.0%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV -9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

South Shields face Bedford Town in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South Shields a 81% chance, the draw 12% and Bedford Town 7%, so South Shields are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for South Shields and 0.8 for Bedford Town (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South Shields are averaging 2.45 points per game versus 1.00 for Bedford Town. This match finished 1-1.

South Shields vs Bedford Town Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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