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Norrby vs Ljungskile Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 11:00

Norrby

PPG 0.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ljungskile

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-110.5%0-27.3%0-33.4%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.9%1-112.5%1-28.8%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.3%2-17.5%2-25.2%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.1%3-13.0%3-22.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 34.7% 2.88 +2.5%

Draw 27.1% 28.6% 3.50 -3.1%

Away win 37.2% 43.5% 2.30 -14.4%

Over 2.5 52.6% 57.1% 1.75 -8.0%

Over 3.5 26.3% 35.1% 2.85 -15.0%

BTTS 52.6% 63.7% 1.57 -17.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.6%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.5%

#3 1–2 8.8%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 2–1✓ 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Norrby1.2

Ljungskile1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NORRBY · PPG 0.67

LJUNGSKILE · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.67) vs Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Norrby (H) 35.6%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +2.5%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.1%

Ljungskile (A) 37.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Norrby face Ljungskile in Sweden - Superettan on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Norrby a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Ljungskile 37%, so Ljungskile are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Norrby and 1.4 for Ljungskile (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Norrby are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Ljungskile. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Norrby vs Ljungskile Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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