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Skedsmo vs Alta Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 11:00

Skedsmo

PPG 3.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Alta

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-12.7%0-22.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-04.3%1-16.8%1-25.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.3%2-18.4%2-26.6%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.4%3-16.9%3-25.5%3-32.9%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-17.7%4+-26.1%4+-33.2%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 35.1% 2.85 +49.3%

Draw 22.9% 25.6% 3.90 -6.4%

Away win 24.7% 51.3% 1.95 -31.1%

Over 2.5 63.9% 71.4% 1.40 -10.5%

Over 3.5 57.6% 54.1% 1.85 +6.6%

BTTS 63.0% 74.1% 1.35 -14.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 20%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.0%

H 52% / xG 2.5-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.4%

#2 1–1 6.8%

#3 3–1 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 3–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skedsmo2.5

Alta1.6

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 57.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SKEDSMO · PPG 3.00

ALTA · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=52.4%

Win probability 1X2

Skedsmo (H) 52.4%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +49.3%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -6.4%

Alta (A) 24.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -31.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Skedsmo face Alta in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skedsmo a 52% chance, the draw 23% and Alta 25%, so Skedsmo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Skedsmo and 1.6 for Alta (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skedsmo are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Alta. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +49.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Skedsmo vs Alta Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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