Scarborough vs Merthyr Town Prediction— England - National League - North

England - National League - North North - 45 Mounting Systems Stadium Saturday, April 18, 2026 14:00

Scarborough PPG 1.64

2-1 HIT CS2

Merthyr Town PPG 1.73

Away· +9.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Scarborough face Merthyr Town in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Scarborough a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Merthyr Town 34%, so Scarborough are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Scarborough and 1.5 for Merthyr Town (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Scarborough are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.73 for Merthyr Town. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 42.9%

Odds: 2.10 EV: -9.9%

Draw 23.0%

Odds: 3.30 EV: -24.1%

Away 34.1%

Odds: 3.20 EV: +9.1%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 63.7% Odds: 1.50 -4.5%

Over 3.5 41.5% Odds: 2.20 -8.7%

BTTS 64.8% Odds: 1.38 -10.6%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✔

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Scarborough

1.74

Merthyr Town

1.54

Model SuggestionBTTS -10.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -10.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+9.1%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5/Under 66%

BTTS/No 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 5.4%

Bet Hit 67% (12 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.64), Away GOOD (1.73)