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Scarborough vs Merthyr Town Prediction— England - National League - North

North - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Scarborough

PPG 1.64 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Merthyr Town

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 64.8% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.8%0-24.4%0-32.3%0-4+1.2%1 1-06.6%1-110.1%1-27.7%1-34.0%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.7%2-18.8%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.3%3-15.1%3-23.9%3-32.0%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.3%4+-22.5%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% 47.6% 2.10 -9.9%

Draw 23.0% 30.3% 3.30 -24.1%

Away win 34.1% 31.3% 3.20 +9.1%

Over 2.5 63.7% 66.7% 1.50 -4.5%

Over 3.5 41.5% 45.5% 2.20 -8.7%

BTTS 64.8% 72.5% 1.38 -10.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob64.8%

H 43% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1✓ 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 1–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Scarborough1.7

Merthyr Town1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SCARBOROUGH · PPG 1.64

MERTHYR TOWN · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.64), Away GOOD (1.73)

Win probability 1X2

Scarborough (H) 42.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -9.9%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -24.1%

Merthyr Town (A) 34.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Scarborough face Merthyr Town in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Scarborough a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Merthyr Town 34%, so Scarborough are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Scarborough and 1.5 for Merthyr Town (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Scarborough are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.73 for Merthyr Town. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Scarborough vs Merthyr Town Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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