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G. Dandelion vs Xiamen Feilu Prediction— China - League Two

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 11:00

G. Dandelion

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Xiamen Feilu

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a clear edge.

+14.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-16.3%0-24.0%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.6%1-110.9%1-27.0%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.4%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.3%3-15.4%3-23.5%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.5%4+-22.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 45.5% 2.20 +7.1%

Draw 25.7% 33.3% 3.00 -13.7%

Away win 25.6% 33.3% 3.00 -13.9%

Over 2.5 59.1% 46.5% 2.15 +27.1%

Over 3.5 35.3% 26.0% 3.84 +35.5%

BTTS 59.7% 52.4% 1.91 +14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 1.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.4%

#4 1–2 7.0%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

G. Dandelion1.7

Xiamen Feilu1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.3%

Form & verdict PPG

G. DANDELION · PPG 2.00

XIAMEN FEILU · PPG 0.75

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=48.7%

Win probability 1X2

G. Dandelion (H) 48.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +7.1%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -13.7%

Xiamen Feilu (A) 25.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

G. Dandelion face Xiamen Feilu in China - League Two on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives G. Dandelion a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Xiamen Feilu 26%, so G. Dandelion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for G. Dandelion and 1.3 for Xiamen Feilu (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, G. Dandelion are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.75 for Xiamen Feilu. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +35.5%. This match finished 1-3.

G. Dandelion vs Xiamen Feilu Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League Two Predictions