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Wuxi Wugou vs Nanjing City Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 11:00

Wuxi Wugou

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Nanjing City

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.4%0-19.8%0-23.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.8%1-111.9%1-23.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.0%2-17.2%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.8%3-12.9%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 54.1% 1.85 -7.1%

Draw 28.8% 31.3% 3.20 -4.7%

Away win 20.9% 25.0% 4.00 -9.8%

Over 2.5 35.0% 47.6% 2.10 -26.5%

Over 3.5 11.0% 26.3% 3.80 -34.9%

BTTS 46.2% 54.1% 1.85 -14.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -33.6%

Bet Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.2%

H 50% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.4%

#2 1–0 19.8%

#3 1–1✓ 11.9%

#4 2–0 12.0%

#5 0–1 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wuxi Wugou1.2

Nanjing City0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 11.0%

Form & verdict PPG

WUXI WUGOU · PPG 1.75

NANJING CITY · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=50.2%

Win probability 1X2

Wuxi Wugou (H) 50.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -7.1%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -4.7%

Nanjing City (A) 20.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wuxi Wugou face Nanjing City in China - League One on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wuxi Wugou a 50% chance, the draw 29% and Nanjing City 21%, so Wuxi Wugou are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Wuxi Wugou and 0.6 for Nanjing City (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wuxi Wugou are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.33 for Nanjing City. This match finished 1-1.

Wuxi Wugou vs Nanjing City Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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